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Concepts & theories

Mortality doubling time

DESterblichkeits-Verdopplungszeit

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Mortality doubling time (MDT) is the number of years it takes for age-specific mortality risk to double, derived directly from the Gompertz exponent b as MDT = ln(2)/b. In contemporary high-income populations, the MDT for all-cause mortality is approximately 7–8 years in mid-adulthood, meaning a 50-year-old's annual risk of dying is roughly twice that of a 42–43-year-old. MDT is a compact summary of the rate of actuarial ageing and is used comparatively across species (where it varies from months in short-lived organisms to decades in naked mole-rats and humans) and across population subgroups, enabling detection of interventions that alter ageing rate rather than merely shifting baseline mortality.

Sources

  1. Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS. (2001). The reliability theory of aging and longevity. *Journal of Theoretical Biology*doi:10.1006/jtbi.2001.2430
  2. Gompertz B. (1825). Gompertz, B. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality. *Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London*doi:10.1098/rstl.1825.0026